A recent poll of hundreds of economists reveals a consensus that the protectionist “America First” policies of then President-elect Donald Trump are likely to harm the US economic growth. This survey, conducted among more than 220 economists from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone, presents a contrasting view to the optimism expressed by some investors.
**The Dubious Impact of “MAGA Economics” on the US Economy**
Many economists based in the US believe that Trump’s new term could spur inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to exercise more caution with interest rate cuts. Experts suggest that while Trump’s policies may spur short-term growth, it could come at the cost of a global economic slowdown, ultimately hurting the US. Here’s a breakdown of their analysis:
– Economists have forecast the trajectory of Trump’s presidency based on his campaign promises and threats, including comprehensive tariffs, deportation of undocumented immigrants, deregulation, and tax cuts.
– Among these, tariffs stand out as a critical issue, with Trump advocating for their use to narrow the trade deficit and boost domestic production.
– Over half of the 47 economists specializing in the US economy anticipate a negative impact on the US economy due to Trump’s policies.
**Contrast Between Economists’ Pessimism and Investors’ Optimism**
The pessimism among economists stands in stark contrast to the optimism of investors. Following Trump’s victory, the S&P 500 index soared, and Wall Street banks expressed optimism about the stock market’s prospects for the following year.
**Trump’s Policies to Hurt Europe**
Economists in the Eurozone are even more pessimistic about the impact of Trump’s policies on their region than their American counterparts. Their concerns are as follows:
– The primary worry in the Eurozone is the outlook for manufacturing, particularly in Germany.
– Germany’s automotive industry could be a “special target” of Trump’s policies.
– Trump’s tariff threats could deal a direct or indirect blow to European industries.
– In the UK, over 56% of economists expect Trump to have a negative effect on the British economy.
In summary, the “Trump administration is seen as an ‘unpredictable machine’ that will hinder businesses and households from making long-term decisions with ease, inevitably leading to economic costs.”
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A recent survey indicates that Donald Trump’s “MAGA Economics” could potentially harm the US economy while also casting a shadow over Europe’s manufacturing sector, especially within the Eurozone. Economists are concerned that Trump’s policies may spark inflation and a global economic downturn, ultimately boomeranging on the US. This contrasts with the乐观 outlook of investors post-Trump’s election. There is a particular anxiety in Britain and the Eurozone that Trump’s tariff policies could have a detrimental impact on local industries. The prevailing sentiment characterizes the Trump administration as an unpredictable force, likely to obstruct strategic decision-making for businesses and families, with inevitable economic repercussions.
