**2025 AI Best Ideas: 20 Key Predictions**
Idea 01
Microsoft shifts to Anthropic, drastically altering the model and cloud landscape. The tension between Microsoft and OpenAI is no secret. By 2025, OpenAI will become a profitable entity, and Microsoft is likely to invest in Anthropic, which will completely reshape the model and cloud dynamics. Anthropic teams up with Azure, while OpenAI ends its exclusive relationship with Microsoft to collaborate with other clouds.
Idea 02
Google reverses the tide with a few trump cards, becoming the “leading follower.” Google has narrowed the gap with the top two in terms of model and Agent progress, holding several aces: TPU, Android/Chrome, Deepmind, and more. Google’s RL and Agent advancements are rapid, with the launch of multiple modal intelligent products.
Idea 03
The next-generation Mega 7 prototype emerges, with OS as the ultimate moat. The Mega 7 prototype is taking shape around LLM-players like OpenAI and Anthropic. For model vendors, possessing an OS is the highest form of competitive advantage.
Idea 04
Agent is the new software, the core of investment in 2025. Agents will evolve incrementally, with Coding Agent being the first to land. Software essentially digitizes and automates human behavior and workflows.
Idea 05
Task automation becomes the keyword. While the definition of Agent is still unclear, the success rate of task automation should be the focus. Stronger Agents are needed to complete complex tasks with more steps.
Idea 06
Context layer becomes the secret weapon for Agents. To enable Agents to better handle multi-step complex tasks, context will become the highest priority infra capability.
Idea 07
Training recedes, inference advances, NV’s leadership remains solid. With the enhancement of model inference capabilities and exponential growth in demand, NVDA maintains its leadership in the computing market with GB200.
Idea 08
Pre-training, Post training, and o3 integration. The line between Post-training and pre-training will blur, with large-scale RL becoming a key bet.
Idea 09
Synthetic data achieves technological breakthrough. The scalable acquisition of synthetic data is an important technical challenge expected to be resolved this year.
Idea 10
o3 verifies reasoning scaling law, but commercialization hits a bottleneck. o3 brings reasoning scaling law, but strong reasoning is not a mass market demand, resulting in lower commercial certainty.
Idea 11
Chatbot competition turns a new page, focusing on new AI product forms. Chatbot remains the most inclusive front-end interaction, but more complex product forms will become the new focus.
Idea 12
Memory and Online learning issues are resolved. The issues with Memory and Online learning are expected to be resolved by 2025, making LLM and Agents more proactive and personalized.
Idea 13
Multimodal intelligence achieves a breakthrough. More investment will flow into multimodal intelligence, with visual reasoning and Scaling Law becoming key research directions.
Idea 14
ChatGPT and Perplexity successfully monetize through advertising. Advertising surpasses the subscription model as the mainstream, with LLM startups beginning to experiment with advertising monetization.
Idea 15
Autonomous driving reaches a commercial inflection point. Waymo starts to erode Uber’s market share and may go public in 2025.
Idea 16
AI sector M&A remains active. Investment and acquisitions in the AI field will continue to be lively, shifting from large factories acquiring foundation model companies to medium and large companies acquiring AI native applications.
Idea 17
Power shortages persist, nuclear power restart is a clear trend.
Idea 18
AI for science progresses rapidly. Various scientific fields have seen the emergence of their respective foundation models.
Idea 19
Most of the AI technology dividend flows into large companies. Mega 9 companies hold the key assets of AI, and they have the opportunity to “tax” any enterprise or individual who buys into AI’s value.
Idea 20
After the 2025 Q1 earnings, the U.S. stock market experiences a significant adjustment due to slow AI progress, but it will break new highs before the end of the year.
