Global Economic Overview for 2024
Entering 2024, the global economy had weathered a turbulent period marked by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation, and emergency rate hikes across nations, leading to a series of crises. However, compared to the dramatic events of the previous years, the global economy in 2024 exhibited stability with a GDP growth of 3.2%, a retreat in inflation rates, though unemployment saw a gradual rise. Overall, the global economy showcased resilience.
**Keyword One: Elections**
In 2024, at least 70 countries around the world held elections, including the United States, India, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France, encompassing more than 49% of the global population. The overarching trend was increased internal governmental disagreements, rising populism, and a shift towards the right, with the UK standing as an exception. For instance, the United States underwent a highly scrutinized presidential election, while the UK witnessed the end of the Conservative Party’s 14-year rule, with the Labour Party securing a decisive majority.
**Keyword Two: Shift**
Starting in the second half of 2023, global inflation eased, oil prices declined, and most economies began to ease off the brakes. Twenty-seven major central banks initiated a cycle of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve started cutting rates in September, while Japan, for the first time in eight years of negative rates, began hiking.
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**The Bright Spot in the U.S. Economy**
The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, exceeding market expectations for two consecutive years and shining as the most impressive among developed economies. This could be attributed to factors such as excess savings, increased leverage, illegal immigration, and stock growth. However, the U.S. economy also faced risks, including a commercial real estate crisis and debt issues.
**Japan’s Economy on the Mend**
In 2024, Japan’s GDP grew by 0.3%, a modest figure, but indicative of an economy on the upswing. Corporate profits rose, the stock market continued to climb, and inflation rates increased. The Bank of Japan began to withdraw from its unconventional policies, showing signs of economic recovery.
**Weaker Growth in Europe**
Europe’s GDP grew by approximately 0.9% in 2024, with Germany’s GDP contracting by 0.1%, marking two consecutive years of negative growth. Germany struggled with an energy crisis, fiscal conservatism, and an aging population, leading to weak economic growth.
**Challenges Facing China’s Economy**
China’s GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2024 were 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%, averaging 4.87%. Exports were impressive, but investment and consumption were lackluster. China’s economy faced challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low confidence, with falling prices and a contracting job market. The government introduced a series of stimulus measures, including reducing existing mortgage rates and issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, to boost consumption and the real estate market.
**Economic Performance of Other Countries**
India’s GDP grew by 7.0% in 2024, the fastest among major economies. Russia’s GDP growth rate was 3.6%, showing strong resilience. The UK’s GDP grew by 1.1%, with inflation falling below 3%. Turkey’s inflation was under control, but GDP growth rates declined. South Korea’s GDP was expected to grow by 2.5%, mainly driven by exports. Argentina ranked at the bottom for economic growth globally, but with ongoing economic experiments, a rapid rebound is anticipated by 2025. Guyana continued to lead the world in GDP growth rates, becoming a nation that achieved prosperity overnight.
**Outlook for 2025**
The global economic outlook for 2025 is generally optimistic, yet it faces uncertainties such as the trade policies of former President Trump and whether China’s consumption and borrowing will recover. The journey ahead is one of cautious optimism, blending the rigor of science with the human touch of progress.
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